I look around at everything happening in today's world and it comes clearer and clearer as the days pass... the world is headed toward WWIII.
For those of us that know our history and pay attention to the events taking place, this statement is not new, nor is it surprising. However, I do want to note that while the geopolitical events of the last decade (or even the last two) are incredibly compelling and indicative (from the perspective of a political scientist specializing in international relations and defense policy) of a growing conflict that is to come, I do not think a global war is completely inevitable and I think it is tone-deaf to simplify what we are seeing now as an 'exact' retelling of the events of the 1930's and 1940's. Russia and Nazi Germany, and Hitler and Putin for that matter, are not the same, they do not want the same things, and an oversimplification that Putin is just another megalomaniac, autocrat, or dictator like Hitler is both lazy and ignorant. Nonetheless, the similarities are increasingly apparent to what the world saw in 1938 as nations the world over began to once again draw their arms.
In 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian military units across the border and into Crimea, annexing the peninsula in the Black Sea from Ukraine. This moment in 2014 will go down as our modern equivalent to the summer and early autumn of 1938, when the Munich Conference collapsed and the German Reich annexed the Sudetenland and German tanks rolled into Czechoslovakia.
Now, the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia is all but parallel to the September 1939 German invasion of Poland.
Only now, that invasion has, at the very least, and by every measure, ground to a halt. Additionally, it is up for debate as to whether or not the Ukrainian incursions into bordering Russian Oblasts' will result in a decisive turning point in the conflict, begging the question, "Will Russia be able to turn the tide, force Ukrainian units to retreat, retake Russian land, and then harness the defensive momentum to bring the fight back to Ukraine?" This is both a question that only time will tell and not the question I am posing to this forum. However, I do want to also mention that while I do believe the use of western weapons systems, financial support, etc. has definitely been one of the - possibly THEE - sole reason(s) that Ukraine has not given up the fight (Ukraine has fought the Russians before (well, the Soviets), and put up a very good fight from 1917-1921), the gains by Ukrainian forces have been misrepresented and blown out of proportion to support the West's narrative of a successful counter-incursion. Ukraine has, in a very limited way, turned the tide, but to say (of either side) that the conflict, snaked along the border of Ukraine and Russia, is anything but a 'meat-grinder' would be wrong.
Additionally, the state of the Russian military is grossly overstated and exaggerated. Yes, of course the Russian military at its modern peak strength is well equipped to take on that of Ukraine (lest the western money and weapons systems pouring into the country), it is still laughable compared to even the most modest NATO units at peacetime strength. Russia has (well, 'had') numbers on NATO. For example, before the war, just under 900 tanks were under the direct command of NATO, compared to almost 5,000 fielded by the Russians. However, most of these 5,000 were outdated Soviet-era T-72's that had to be refitted before reentering service because Moscow simply does not have the resources to build new tanks in the huge numbers that Putin needs to sustain the Russian war machine for a long, drawn out war. These T-72's aren't 'that' old, and at closer range, they would still be still formidable adversaries on the battlefield, but Germany's 245 Leopard II MBTs or France's 230 Leclerc MBTs would make scrap metal of of these T-72s. Much like the latter years of the Second World War in Europe - the USSR had quantity over Nazi Germany but German tanks (though more complex and intricate, which created a number of headaches when it came to service and repairs) were technologically superior and had a quality that none of the Allied powers could match. In fact, there are countless stories of tank crews in Tiger I's, Tiger II's and Panther tanks who surrendered or gave up the fight not because they were going to be destroyed but because they simply ran out of ammunition after destroying swarms of Soviet T-34 and American Sherman tanks - this is very much what the case would be in a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO if a conflict were to breakout at this precise moment.
There are also a lot of parallels between pre-WWI Europe and the world today in terms of geopolitics:
The US looks increasingly like a mock-up of both the British Empire and the Ottoman Empire.
First, like the British Empire, the US [American Empire] is losing its grip on global dominance and its influence. The wars in the Middle East over the last 20 years were not just a reaction to the events of September 11, nor were they simply for resources like oil (though both were factors int he US decision to invade Afghanistan, Iraq and later get involved in Syria), they were also a fledgling attempt at slowing the inevitable that is to come - that we are reentering a period in geopolitics of Multipolarity, where the US will no longer be the SOLE superpower calling the shots. It is happening all over in a number of different ways - BRICS is dethroning the US Dollar by moving away from the US Dollar as a global reserve currency that they trade in, US sanctions can no longer absolutely bring a nation to its knees economically like it would have done in the 1980s and 1990s, etc. Then, the latter, comparing the US to the Ottoman Empire, the US is losing its power more so from internal strife than external threats. Sure, the impact of WWI on the Ottoman Empire was the final nail in the coffin, but at the time leading up to WWI, the Ottoman Empire was the 'Sick Man of Europe' due to internal conflict, and the Great War only materialized the inevitable fate of the Ottoman Empire - collapse and dissolution. Everyday there is another story of political violence, division, tension, infighting, etc. in the states amplifying the divisiveness of the American people. Recent studies have shown that the US is more divided now than ever - even more than the Vietnam War era.
Further, China is the Germany of pre-WWI global affairs - a sleeping giant now awaking, seeking power, influence, and leadership on the global stage... at US [British] expense.
The recent AUKUS trilateral security partnership and submarine deal between Australia, the UK and the US is reminiscent of the pre-WWI naval arms race between Britain and Germany. Currently, the Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) fields as many vessels every four years as the total number of vessels currently operated by the Royal Navy. Not only this, but the growing tension in the South China Sea, Beijing's disregard for international law, and the rearmament of the Japanese Navy and Army while opting for a more loose interpretation of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution tells me that leaders (both political and military) across the globe recognize the impending danger.
This isn't even to take into account the role of North Korea, Iran, the Saudi's/Arabian Peninsula writ large, and other emerging powers like Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, etc.
The Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, eastern Europe, and the South China Sea are all our 'modern Balkan Peninsula' - a powder keg. All of these locations are just waiting for someone or one of the actors involved to make a wrong move, exploit that mistake, then the rest will be history... dragging the rest of the world into the abyss that will be WWIII.
War is coming. It is not going to be something you will be able to watch from your living room on the evening news.
Bombs will reign down on European and American cities.
Power grids will be turned off from far away with the press of a button.
There will be gas and food shortages.
The draft will be reinstated.
Americans are going to be butchered not in the thousands, tens of thousands, or even hundreds of thousands - but in the millions.
Martial Law will probably be instated in various places and for different lengths of time.
The nuclear threat, no matter how high the probability of mutually assured destruction, will be real.
Humanity is going to war. Again. Another 'Great War' because some rich assholes in Washington, Moscow, Berlin, London, Beijing, Paris, etc. say so. Hundreds of millions of people are going to perish. Lives ended abruptly and prematurely at the hands of the rich oligarchs and overlords. Nothing positive will come of it either. We will have gained nothing. Not just rivers, but oceans of blood spilled in the name of what? War profits? Hanging onto an existing world order where the rich get richer, the poor stay poor, and the middle class pays for it all? Fuck this system. Fuck your war.